I am almost done reading Analogs, I am finishing up the 1940s “Astounding.” I have been thinking about what factors contribute, or determine if sci-fi technology will become real. There based on my preliminary finding. I Hope my 9 questions will grow and then shrink into something that is testable. I am not trying to remake Clarke’s three laws of cores, that would be pompous and pointless. I am trying to create a frame work where as an investor has a tool. I am trying to create a system that will be tried and tested and still stand. I want to answer, Why did the Ipad take off, but we still don’t have flying cars? Will there ever be flying cars?
Here are my current 9 questions:
1.) Is there a strong desire or need for the technology?
2.) Is there some other technology that will fulfill the same need?
3.) Does this technology require a dramatic and quick change of habits?
4) Does it require a quick change of life style?
5.) Who would use it? [Is it a niche group or does it have potential for other applications?]
6.) Is it practical?
7.) Is the technology affordable?
8.) Does the technology have multiple uses, or is it locked into one use?
9.) Is it based on a “fashion” fad?
If someone has other ideas or critics I would love to here them,it but as it is I am sure these will be revised.
Can I test this? Yes, yes I can… with 50000000000000000000 notes from 5000000 sci fi stories. (the figure may be a little bit of an exaggeration… just a little)
“Where is the line between science fiction and design?” This is a key issue and this question has yet to be answered. To be honest I am not sure I shall find the answer but I do have a few guesses.
At the forefront of that question is “artists renderings” and “CAD models.” For example, take the newly released images of NASA’s plans to go to mars. These images are taken more seriously than any science fiction story yet these images are not real. The general public finds them “believable” and perceives them as fact. Someone thought of them, used a program to create it in the very same way someone would have thought up a space ship for a distinct alien race.
Why is that? There are plans for these to be real sometime in the future but I doubt that plans are concrete and funding is definitely not assured. Shouldn’t that put these images back into “fiction?”
Is it intent and the time frame? Is it because it is a government agency or a university that puts out these images? Maybe it is just because people believe this can be done, that these things will be made in the near future, because it isn’t too far off from the present? Maybe it is a combo of all of these factors plus something else, maybe it is something I don’t know about… but it is definitely food for thought.