I am almost done reading Analogs, I am finishing up the 1940s “Astounding.” I have been thinking about what factors contribute, or determine if sci-fi technology will become real. There based on my preliminary finding. I Hope my 9 questions will grow and then shrink into something that is testable. I am not trying to remake Clarke’s three laws of cores, that would be pompous and pointless. I am trying to create a frame work where as an investor has a tool. I am trying to create a system that will be tried and tested and still stand. I want to answer, Why did the Ipad take off, but we still don’t have flying cars? Will there ever be flying cars?
Here are my current 9 questions:
1.) Is there a strong desire or need for the technology?
2.) Is there some other technology that will fulfill the same need?
3.) Does this technology require a dramatic and quick change of habits?
4) Does it require a quick change of life style?
5.) Who would use it? [Is it a niche group or does it have potential for other applications?]
6.) Is it practical?
7.) Is the technology affordable?
8.) Does the technology have multiple uses, or is it locked into one use?
9.) Is it based on a “fashion” fad?
If someone has other ideas or critics I would love to here them,it but as it is I am sure these will be revised.